Oil Demand, Supply, andMedium-Term Price Prospects:A Wavelets-Based Analysis

The global “great recession” was precipitated in part by record high prices of oil and other commodities. Previous severe recessions have typically resulted in significantly lower energy prices, which in turn spurred growth and fueled a healthy recovery. In part due to expansionary monetary policies worldwide, oil prices have remained relatively high, making it difficult for the global economy to stage a strong recovery. The result is a short-to-medium term forecast of weak to modest growth, which – combined with continuously falling energyintensity of GDP – means that oil demand will remain stagnant or at best grow modestly. Under these circumstances, surging supply from U.S. shale and similar technologically-driven unconventional oil sources is likely to create excess supply and put strong downward pressure on oil prices. Voluntary reduction in oil production to prevent falling prices is highly unlikely, because swing producer Saudi Arabia and other GCC countries need revenues at the level of current volumes and prices in order to meet core budgetary requirements and prevent regime-change risk in the aftermath of “Arab Spring” revolts. Our wavelet analysis of all countries that have ever produced more than one million barrels of oil per day shows that regime change by itself would not result in significant reduction in oil production – although it may result in lower investment and therefore prevention of further increase in production capacity. However, war that destroys physical installations for the production and/or transport of oil can significantly disrupt oil supplies. In sum, if the outright war scenario is excluded, we expect prices to fall precipitously in the medium term (3-5 years). However, the continued threat of currently-contained civil wars into larger confrontations can maintain the current prices, especially if unprecedented monetary easing continues

Dynamic Modeling of Layered Systems to Moving Surface Loads: Applications

Two important application of a recently developed moving load model are described. The model uses an efficient semi analytical finite layer formulation of the porous medium. One application is a response of a layered sandy nonlinear porous medium, while the other is a viscoelastic pavement layer system. The study reveals that the properties of the layers and porefluid and the moving velocity of the load are important factors that affect the response of the layered system

Ankylosing spondylitis: a case report with review of literature

Background: Ankylosing spondylitis is a relatively common worldwide chronic inflammatory disease that usually affects spine, sacroiliac joints in addition to peripheral joints and affects multiple other tissues, which can progress to bony fusion of the spine.Objective: To fill the gap of the absence of a published description of this condition in Libyan patients and to compare of the clinical presentation and other aspect of the condition in a Libyan patient with what is known worldwide.Materials and Methods: A case report of a 60 year old Libyan male who has Ankylosing spondylitis and then review the available literature.Results: The patient has been having a chronic low back pain and stiffness for the last 26 years. His symptoms are most severe in morning and improve with movement. He developed stiffness and limitation of movement of the neck and restriction of movements of the shoulder and hips. Examination showed kyphosis and limited neck movement and decreased chest expansion. His score on Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Index is 6. His x-rays showed bamboo spine appearance of spine and osteoarthritis in both shoulder joints and hip joints. His presentation fits both European Spondyloarthropathy Study Group diagnostic criteria for spondyloarthropathies and the modified New York Criteria.Conclusion: Our Libyan patient shows a classical clinical and radiological picture of the condition and the diagnostic criteria and severity index could be applied easily to his cases.Keywords: Ankylosing spondylitis, Spondyloarthritis, back pain, back stiffness, bamboo spin

Are People Bayesian? Uncovering Behavioral Strategies

Economists and psychologists have recently been developing new theories of decision making under uncertainty that can accommodate the observed violations of standard statistical decision theoretic axioms by experimental subjects. We propose a procedure which finds a collection of decision rules that best explain the behavior of experimental subjects. The procedure is a combination of maximum likelihood estimation of the rules together with an implicit classification of subjects to the various rules, and a penalty for having too many rules. We apply our procedure to data on probabilistic updating by subjects in four different universities. We get remarkably robust results which show that the most important rules used by the subjects (in order of importance) are Bayes's rule, a representativeness rule (ignoring the prior), and to a lesser extent, conservatism (over-weighting the prior)

Uncovering Behavioral Strategies: Likelihood-Based Experimental Data Mining

Economists and psychologists have recently been developing new theories of decision making under uncertainty that can accommodate the observed violations of standard statistical decision theoretic axioms by experimental subjects. We propose a procedure which finds a collection of decision rules that best explain the behavior of experimental subjects. The procedure is a combination of maximum likelihood estimation of the rules together with an implicit classification of subjects to the various rules, and a penalty for having too many rules. We prove that our procedure yields consistent estimates (as the number of tasks per subject and the number of subjects go to infinity) of the number of rules being used, the rules themselves, and the proportion of our population using each of the rules. We apply our procedure to data on probabilistic updating by subjects in four different universities. We get remarkably robust results which show that the most important rules used by the subjects are Bayes rule, representativeness rule (ignoring the prior), and conservatism (over-weighting the prior). In our procedure, the subjects are allowed to make errors, and our estimated error rate is typically 20%

E-Device Purchase And Disposal Behaviours in the UAE: An Exploratory Study

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is one of the high-income countries in the Middle Eastern region and is vying for sustainable development in every sector. One of the UAE sustainable development goals is to ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns; hence, the emphasis is on circular economy. UAE is one of largest consumers of e-devices, and their proper disposal is of paramount importance. E-waste disposal awareness leads to better disposal behaviors. Therefore, the purpose of the study was to understand the e-device purchase and disposal behaviour among university communities in the UAE. A survey was conducted among the students and staff members of a federally funded university in the UAE, namely Zayed University, and quantitative methodology was adopted to analyze the collected data. The study found that 47.95% of respondents purchased mobile phones, and 65% of the respondents purchased 1-3 electronic devices every year. Through chi-square test, gender of the respondents was found to be related with e-device ownership. Through the analysis of variance (ANOVA), age and field of specialization were found to affect the knowledge about e-waste. Older and the respondents with science specialization were more aware about e-waste. Most of the respondents disposed e-devices, such as batteries, earphones/headphones, and electronic toys, along with the household trash. A very small percentage of respondents disposed e-devices such as laptops, phones, and tablets with the household trash. Mostly, these were either repaired, donated, or sold to second-hand users. Many respondents were neither aware of the government initiatives on e-waste collection nor participated in government-sponsored e-waste recycling. The study further identified that 67% of the respondents were aware of the toxicity of e-waste, and 61% of the respondents were keen to join e-waste recycling drives at university. The findings of the study imply that the policy makers need to incentivize e-waste-disposal systems and develop targeted awareness approaches to enhance e-waste disposal in the UAE

HEPATOPROTECTIVE AND HEPATOTHERAPUTIC EFFECTS OF PROPOLIS AGAINST D-GALACTOSAMINE/LIPOPOLYSACCHARIDE-INDUCED LIVER DAMAGE IN RATS

Objective: The aim of the present study was to investigate the potential hepatoprotective and hepatotherapeutic activities of propolis against D-galactosamine and lipopolysaccharide (D-GaIN/LPS)-induced hepatotoxicity in rats.Methods: Hepatotoxicity was induced in rats by intra peritoneal injection of GalN (300 mg/kg) and LPS (30 μg/kg). In the hepatoprotection experiment, propolis was administered orally for 10 days before induction of hepatoxicity. In another experiment (hepatotherapy), propolis was dosed immediately after GalN/LPS injection.Results: Injection of GalN/LPS to rats induced hepatic damage that was manifested by a significant increase in the activities of aminotransferases, alkaline phosphatase, lactate dehydrogenase and levels of tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α) and total bilirubin in serum. Liver homogenate of intoxicated animals had the lower content of reduced glutathione with increased levels of the hepatic malondialdehyde and caspase-3 enzyme. Histological data presented marked damage in liver sections of intoxicated rats. Oral dosing of propolis before or once immediately after intoxication reversed these altered parameters near to normal values.Conclusion: Liver apoptotic events such as DNA fragmentation and increased caspase-3 activity observed during intoxication were prevented by pre and post- propolis treatment. These results suggest that propolis could afford significant protection and therapy in alleviation of hepatotoxicity.Â